Ces radiol. 2009, 63(4):342-347

Benefits and Radiation Risk in Breast Mammography Screening for Period 2003-2007Original article

Otto Kodl¹, Eva Jursíková¹, Jan Daneš², Ladislav Tomášek³

¹ Státní úřad pro jadernou bezpečnost, Praha

² 1. LF UK a VFN, Praha

³ Státní ústav radiační ochrany, Praha

Probable count of spontaneous and radiation-induced breast cancers was estimated based on long life risk indexes LR(a) and index for exposed population LRE(a). Life risks LER(a) is then determined by their difference and represents probability of radiation-induced cancer. Based on data during five year screening, the estimates were made to determine radiation exposure, to estimate benefits and losses for period from 2003-2007. According to data about breast cancer mortality before screening (during period 1989-2002) was estimated at 47% and fatality rate after screening (during period 2003-2005) was estimated at 37%. Fatality rate for induced cancers is according UNSCEAR 2000 = 33%. Results from available data suggest, that screening effectiveness during period 2003-2005 is 10% decrease in fatality rate. At the moment it is possible to make only competent estimate based on probable survival for each pathological cancer stage. It is assumed that pathological finding in the 1st stage has good chance for survival (80%) in next 5 or 10 years. The available data can be concluded that estimated fatality rate for years 2003 to 2007 is about 27%, it represents decrease in fatality ratio by 20% after end of the first screening cycle, and witch is close to expected values.

Keywords: screening, life time risk, radiation risk, benefit, fatality

Accepted: June 10, 2009; Published: December 1, 2009  Show citation